The forecast also predicts demand for 8,500 new business aircraft worth $280 billion during that period, up a little from earlier forecasts and prompting some manufacturers to ramp up production. At the same time, customer demand has leveled off, suggesting a more balanced market is taking hold, according to the survey, which was released Sunday in Las Vegas on the eve of the big show.

“The business aviation industry is in a prolonged period of healthy growth, and we don’t see that positive trend changing any time soon,” said Heath Patrick, president, Americas Aftermarket, Honeywell Aerospace Technologies. “Business aviation continues to see more users and, as a result, manufacturers are ramping up production to keep pace with growing demand, a trend we expect to continue for the foreseeable future.”

Demand for large business jets continues to dominate the market. More than two-thirds of that $280 billion will be spent on the latest long-range wonders. But those of more modest means remain bullish on their smaller aircraft as important business tools.

“More than 90 percent of those surveyed expect to fly more or about the same in 2025 than in 2024,” Honeywell said.

NBAA-BACE formally kicks off on Tuesday at the Las Vegas Convention Center.

Editor’s Note: This article first appeared on AVweb.

The post Honeywell Forecasts Strong Growth Ahead for Business Aviation appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

A terminal aerodrome forecast, simply known as a TAF, is perhaps the most difficult forecast any meteorologist will ever make. Think about the challenge these forecasters face. A TAF is essentially an hour-by-hour forecast for conditions significant to aviation at an airport over the next 24 or 30 hours. This includes a forecast for details such as wind speed and direction, cloud coverage, ceiling height, prevailing visibility, and precipitation type.

When you think of a TAF, size matters. This forecast is difficult because of the relatively small diameter of the area they are attempting to cover. The U.S. definition of a terminal area is the region within five statute miles of the center of the airport’s runway complex. Thus, meteorologists refer to a TAF as a “point forecast,” and it’s critical to understand its limitations and how they affect the forecasts general aviation pilots ultimately use every day.

The Terminal Area

A five statute mile area is a tiny region to get all forecast elements right over a given period. In fact, the terminal area is often smaller than the resolution of the forecast guidance they are using to issue the TAF. It’s like placing a coin on a sidewalk and asking someone at the top of a five-story building to identify if the coin is a nickel, dime, or quarter using their naked eyes.

Here’s a way to visualize why it’s so hard to issue these forecasts. Let’s pretend for a moment that you are the forecaster and someone asks, “What are the chances there will be a thunderstorm reported somewhere in the conterminous U.S. in the month of July?” Certainly, there are a lot of thunderstorms in July, and the conterminous U.S. encompasses a huge area. Your forecast would likely be that there’s a 100 percent chance. And you would be 100 percent correct.

That was an easy forecast, and you didn’t even need a meteorology degree to get it right. Now, how about a slightly different question? What is the chance of a thunderstorm reported sometime during the month of July in the state of Oklahoma? Given a month is a long period and Oklahoma is a state with lots of thunderstorms during the summer, again, I’d bet your answer would be that there’s a 100 percent chance. Now, how about the chance of a thunderstorm being reported on July 14 at the Oklahoma City airport at 8 a.m.? Well, once again, there’s a pretty easy answer; you’d likely say it’s a zero percent chance.

When you narrow down the time and the location, you can see the swing from a near guarantee at 100 percent to a near guarantee at zero percent. Forecasting for a small five statute mile area is incredibly difficult, if not fundamentally impossible at times, but meteorologists at the local weather forecast offices are asked to carry out the impossible every day. They need to determine if that coin is a nickel, dime, or quarter.

There’s no doubt that TAFs are used by all pilots because of the significant detail they provide. Everyone from general aviation pilots to commercial air carriers utilize TAFs to anticipate weather conditions in the airport terminal area. Without question, TAF content can have a strong impact on fuel loads, the need for alternates, and other operational aspects because of their stringent regulatory nature.

Scheduling TAFs

Each weather forecast office in the conterminous U.S. is typically responsible for issuing a TAF for up to ten airports within its region of coverage called a county warning area or CWA. For example, the Greenville-Spartanburg forecast office in Greer, South Carolina, is responsible for preparing TAFs for six local terminal areas, including the Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT).

It’s important that the TAFs are prepared and issued by local forecasters instead of forecasters sitting in some Washington, D.C., office. They often consider sub-synoptic local effects, and they are tuned into the local weather patterns since they deal with them every day. The difference between a low IFR ceiling and a clear sky can be just a matter of 10 miles at times.

Therefore, the size of the terminal area is a point (pun intended) that should not be overlooked. The TAF may or may not always be representative of an area or zone forecast. Additionally, locally derived forecast rules and outside pressure from the FAA or even the airlines can cause the TAF to be quite different than an area forecast.

Scheduled TAFs are issued four times daily (every six hours) at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z. In most circumstances, the TAF is transmitted between 20 minutes and 40 minutes prior to these times. Moreover, for high-impact airports such as Atlanta, Chicago and New York, TAFs may be routinely issued every three or even two hours. For now, those off-schedule issuances will still be released as amendments. So, if you see an amended forecast in these regions, it may not be because of a poorly aligned forecast with respect to the weather—it may be a new and improved forecast.

Precipitation events, especially thunderstorms, give meteorologists the most trouble. Forecasting convection in the terminal area is all about quantifying the uncertainty of the event. Even in reasonably dynamic situations with traveling weather systems, meteorologists can find it challenging to predict when convection will impact the terminal area over the forecast period.

Dealing with Uncertainty

Unfortunately, forecasters do not have a convenient way in a TAF to quantify their uncertainty. In the public forecast, you’ll see something like “a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms.”

Sure, forecasters can throw in a PROB30 forecast group into a TAF, but by NWS directives, PROB30 groups are not allowed to exist in the first nine hours of the forecast period. By the way, the NWS only uses PROB30, although you may see PROB40 in international TAFs or TAFs issued by the military. So, what can a forecaster do when there’s a chance of thunderstorms in the public forecast, but the uncertainty is high? In most cases, the forecaster will leave out any mention of thunderstorms given that it is just too uncertain and the likelihood is small that a thunderstorm will roll through that tiny forecast region. Forecasters are also pressured by the airlines to avoid placing thunderstorms in a TAF in these situations. A forecast for thunder may require filing an alternate, and the need to take on more fuel.

Perhaps in this uncertain situation, these are just the scattered variety of afternoon pulse-type thunderstorms. In this case, the forecaster has two possible solutions, neither of which will appear in your aviation textbook or ground school. First, they can add rain showers (SHRA) or showers in the vicinity (VCSH)

instead of thunderstorms. Showery precipitation is inherently a convective process. It’s not unusual to see forecasters include one of these two precipitation forecasts into the TAF when the uncertainty of thunderstorms is high. Essentially it becomes a placeholder for thunderstorms. When conditions eventually begin to evolve and it becomes clear thunderstorms will impact the terminal area, the forecaster will likely amend the TAF to replace SHRA or VCSH with TSRA (rain and thunderstorms within the terminal area).

Area Forecast Discussions

Second, forecasters may often explain their reasoning in the area forecast discussion or AFD. No, it’s not a discussion about the aviation area forecast that was retired in 2018. Instead, it’s a discussion about the weather expected in the local county warning area (CWA) for that weather forecast office. Every AFD contains an aviation section that discusses the TAFs for airports within that CWA. It is in the AFD that a forecaster can explain, contemplate, brood over, or even complain about why they didn’t include a forecast for thunderstorms, fog, or freezing rain.

In fact, most forecasters will do a pretty good job trying to quantify their uncertainty. In the case of thunderstorms, you may see words in the AFD like “including light rain showers to cover the unlikely threat of thunderstorms.” The AFD isn’t something you’d get in a standard briefing, but it certainly should be part of your preflight brief. I’ve always said that if you are not reading the AFDs, you are missing half the forecast.

You can find the full AFD for each county warning area by visiting the weather.gov website. If you visit weather.gov, in the upper-left corner, type in a location such as an airport, city and state, or Zip code, and you will be presented with a forecast that includes a link on that page labeled “Forecast Discussion” that is valid for that town or airport. That link will contain the entire discussion that includes the aviation section. The AFD is also included in some of the heavyweight aviation apps or using my EZWxBrief progressive web app.

Local Knowledge

So, the next time you pore over the TAFs along your route, remember these two points. First, never assume the weather forecast at one airport applies to a nearby airport. On some occasions when the weather is homogeneous across a region, it very well may be that a TAF is representative of the weather at airports close by. Forecasters have local knowledge and often make forecasts that take into consideration how terrain or the previous day’s weather can impact the weather at any particular airport.

Second, TAFs are not an area or zone forecast and should never be used as such. It’s often easy to look at all of the TAFs along your route and make a hasty decision. Just because the three or four TAFs along your proposed route do not mention thunderstorms doesn’t mean you won’t encounter them during cruise. Use TAFs for what they are intended to show. Therefore, if you have an emergency and need to land, knowing the potential weather at those airports along your route is important. TAFs can tell you if they are likely to be good alternates if you need one.

Lastly, keep in mind that a precipitation forecast in a TAF defines the type of precipitation expected to reach the surface. For example, a forecast for –RA (light rain) or –DZ (light drizzle) doesn’t imply there’s no chance of running into FZRA (freezing rain) or FZDZ (freezing drizzle). The precipitation forecast is based on what’s expected at the surface. If the temperature is forecast to be a degree or two above freezing at the surface, you will see a forecast for rain (or drizzle), but you may find that just 500 feet above the surface, there’s a nasty freezing rain (or freezing drizzle) event waiting for you.

The post The Point Forecast Sheds New Light on TAFs appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

New business aircraft operators account for 500 of the sales from 2024 to 2033, increasing fleet
utilization by about 6 percent. Nineteen percent of existing business jet operators say that they will replace or add aircraft in their fleets in the next five years, accounting for more than 4,000 new aircraft deliveries.This is almost three times the replacement rate operators planned from 2010 to 2020. The purchasing expectation expectation also is 2 points higher than in 2022, reflecting operators’ optimism about the state of the industry and world economy. Almost two-thirds of respondents say they will fly as much in 2024 as they did in 2023. Twenty-nine percent say they will fly more hours next year. The overall size of the fleet will grow by 3 percent, according to Honeywell.

During the next five years, 64 percent of new aircraft will be delivered to North American customers, 14 percent to European operators and 11 percent to Asia-Pacific. Deliveries to the Middle East and Africa increase to 6 percent, but Latin America declines to 5 percent of global deliveries.

Jimenez-Serrano says that while fractional aircraft operators are not part of the survey, inputs from Part 91K operators, among other sources, help bolster the accuracy of the forecast. Sample size this year was a scant 100 operators, down from more than 1,500 in previous years. However, the Honeywell data closely parallels the projections of Rolland Vincent Associates of Plano, Texas, long considered one of the most credible market research firms in the business aviation industry. Jimenez-Serrano concedes that sampling error could approach +/-5 percent with only 100 respondents.

Working Through Backlogs, Supply Chain Recovery

The next three years will witness a strong surge in deliveries, as the supply chain fully recovers from the COVID slump and OEMs work off order backlogs. OEMs missed 350 deliveries from 2020 to 2022 because of COVID-induced supply chain snags. Deliveries plateau somewhat in 2028 and 2029 before slowly increasing to 930 deliveries in 2022. Jimenez-Serrano notes that total estimated deliveries during the next decade will be the highest in nearly a decade.

Midsize and super-midsize aircraft deliveries should increase about 15 percent in 2024. Long term, large cabin and ultra-long range aircraft deliveries, while only representing about 10 percent of the total, account for 69 percent of the sales revenues during the next five years. Jimenez-Serrano notes that Gulfstream’s GVII series, G400, G500 and G600, plus the Dassault Falcon 6X in the large cabin class, along with the Bombardier Global 7500/8000, Dassault Falcon 10X, and Gulfstream G700/G800, are well positioned to capitalize on this surge.

Honeywell’s Take on Sustainability

Sustainability increasingly is on the minds of business aircraft operators, with two-thirds of respondents saying they plan to embrace or increase efforts to reduce emissions. Current steps include flying fewer missions and using the airlines in lieu of their own business jets. Only 12 percent presently use biojet. Longer term, 39 percent say they plan to use sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and another 28 percent will buy carbon offset credits.

But, jet fuel suppliers have been slow to increase production of SAF to meet a sharp increase in demand from both business aircraft operators and the airlines. The civil jet industry consumes nearly 100-billion gallons per year and SAF production amounts to only 100-million gallons. David Shilliday, vice president and general manager of Honeywell Power Systems, believes that the industry can boost output to 10-billion gallons per year by 2030, using existing refineries and feed stocks. If the industry is going to make the transition to 100 percent SAF by 2050, Shilliday believes that major U.S. federal government investment will be needed to help jet fuel suppliers achieve that goal. Without government aid, it’s unlikely that large scale increases in feedstock supply, SAF production and cost-per-gallon affordability can be achieved.

The post Honeywell Releases 2023 Business Aviation Market Forecast appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

Answer: MOS stands for model output statistics and is pronounced “moss.” MOS has been around since the 1960s and was originally developed to provide aviation meteorologists with guidance to produce useful forecasts to pilots. But over the last decade, MOS has been making its way into the aviator’s toolkit and is offered by a couple of the heavyweight electronic flight bag (EFB) apps. 

So, what does MOS offer? Crazy as it may seem, most pilots really want to know what’s happening at an airport from a weather perspective. Before they depart, they’d like to know what the ceiling or visibility will be like when they reach their destination. Will they get that visual approach or will they need to prepare to fly an instrument approach? Or perhaps they want to find an airport with favorable winds to practice some crosswind landings. 

There’s nothing special about these requirements, however. One nice aspect about MOS is that it’s available for more than 2,100 civilian and military airports throughout the U.S. and its territories. At the moment, the National Weather Service (NWS) only issues a terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF) for 700 airports in this same region. So, if your departure, destination, or alternate airport does not have a TAF, MOS provides some useful guidance about the expected meteorological conditions significant to aviation at those airports at the time of your departure or arrival. 

Here’s the technical part. Most weather prediction models that you often hear about on the local news, such as the American or European model, don’t automatically produce a point forecast for a specific town or airport for various sensible weather elements, such as ceiling height, visibility, and surface wind. This is where MOS shines. 

MOS combines this “raw” model forecast with geoclimatic data in an attempt to improve upon it using a statistical method. It relates observed weather elements (decades of past observations) to appropriate variables (predictors) via a statistical approach. Because it uses geoclimatic data, MOS is capable of accounting for local effects that cannot be resolved by these models alone. In other words, if the airport is in a valley or on a hilltop or next to a large body of water, MOS is able to account for that local topography. It’s a lot like the old local pilot who has been flying for 50 or more years that can tell you exactly what to expect on the final approach when the winds are coming off of the mountains west of the airport. 

The other important element is that MOS downscales the model data into weather elements important to aviation. This includes, but is not limited to, cloud coverage, ceiling height, prevailing visibility, wind speed and direction, precipitation type, and the probability of precipitation or thunderstorms. 

While MOS does an excellent job most of the time, remember it’s an automated forecast—there’s no human in the loop like a TAF. It should never be used as a wholesale replacement for a forecaster-issued TAF. So it should never be used to replace a TAF from a legal perspective. If the airport has a TAF, that forecast needs to be used to determine if an alternate is required and alternate minimums for instrument flight rules. MOS guidance is best used as a way to fill in the blanks when the official forecasts don’t provide the details necessary. 

• READ MORE: Navigating Smoke

Two of the three existing MOS forecasts are being retired in the next few years. However, the only version of MOS that has made its way into the FAA literature (see the Aviation Weather Handbook/FAA-H-8083-28) is called LAMP, which stands for localized aviation MOS program. It is issued hourly and is being fully supported by the NWS in the foreseeable future. Does this effectively mean that LAMP can be used to make operational decisions about a flight? I’ll let the legal scholars opine on that. Nevertheless, visit https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/lamp to view the suite of LAMP forecasts.  

MOS has some important limitations you should know about. It cannot forecast multiple cloud layers as you see in a TAF. Except for when the forecast is shown as clear, a single fixed cloud layer is the best MOS can do at this point, and it cannot tell the difference between a definite and indefinite ceiling. MOS also cannot directly forecast showers in the vicinity (VCSH) or fog in the vicinity (VCFG), nor can it forecast precipitation intensity or tell the difference between rain or drizzle. MOS is also unable to predict a variable wind.

The post What Is a MOS Forecast? appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

On Tuesday morning, the storm was gaining strength as it moved over the state’s Gulf coast. It was expected to make landfall as a Category 3 storm.

“On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico [Tuesday], reach the Gulf coast of Florida within the Hurricane warning area on Wednesday, and move close to the Carolina coastline on Thursday,” the National Hurricane Center said in a statement Tuesday morning.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Florida Gulf coast, including the Tampa Bay and Big Bend region of Florida which may see water as high as 8 to 12 feet above ground level.

Tuesday morning, the FAA said it was rerouting aircraft, closing Gulf routes, and also considering pausing flights at Palm Beach International (KBPI), Miami International (KMIA), and Fort Lauderdale International (KFLL) airports.

The FAA is re-routing aircraft and closing Gulf routes as Hurricane #Idalia is expected to hit the Florida region Wednesday morning. We may pause flights in and out of @flyPBI, @iflymia and @FLLFlyer to keep you safe. Monitor https://t.co/smgdqJNBiL. #FAAWeatherSquad pic.twitter.com/xkwSDMsuGy

— The FAA (@FAANews) August 29, 2023

As of Monday night, approximately 500 flights in and out of Tampa International Airport (KTPA) were preemptively canceled, CNN reported. By Tuesday, cancellations continued at several airports, resulting in a domino effect across the nation’s air travel grid. More cancellations are possible.

According to the storm models under review by NOAA, the agency that tracks hurricanes, Category 3 storms carry winds greater than 80 mph. 

As of 11 a.m. EDT, a look at the TAFs for the state shows multiple airports with strong winds from the south with gusts forecast to approach 50 mph.

Time is running out to prepare for Idalia! Follow the urgent advice from local officials. This hurricane could very well join the extensive list of storms starting with the letter I that have been especially destructive. pic.twitter.com/GjryWUCnl1

— NWS Director (@NWSDirector) August 29, 2023

The post Flights Scrapped as Florida Braces for Hurricane Idalia appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

Answer: Since I introduced the area forecast discussions (AFDs) to the general aviation community a couple of decades ago, this has become a common resource for pilots to review before making operational decisions as it relates to weather. Just to clear up any initial confusion, the area forecast discussion is not a discussion describing the legacy aviation area forecast (FA) that was retired back in October 2017. The AFD is written by forecasters located at each of the local weather forecast offices (WFOs) scattered throughout the U.S. The same forecaster at the WFO that issues the terminal aerodrome forecast (TAFs) for their county warning area (CWA) is also responsible, in part, for issuing the corresponding AFD. The CWA defines the geographic “area” they are discussing. Shown below are the boundaries of the CWAs for the U.S. and its territories. 

The AFD is not a two-way conversation. However, it is a vehicle that the forecaster can use to document the technical reasoning behind the forecast they just issued. In other words, it’s a way for a pilot to know what the forecaster is thinking about the current trends in the forecast. Most important, this is the method the forecaster can use to quantify their uncertainty. It allows them to let the reader know what could go wrong or describe alternate scenarios. I’ve read dozens of errant terminal forecasts over the years; however, there have been very few forecast discussions that didn’t somehow confront the potential of a busted forecast before it happened. I tell all of my one-on-one online students that if you are not reading the AFDs and only looking at the TAFs, you are potentially missing out on half the forecast guidance. 

Each AFD has two primary parts of interest to pilots. The first consists of a synoptic overview and a review of the forecast weather over the next few days for the CWA. The good news is AFDs are written in plain English. The bad news is a lot of jargon is used in this part of the discussion. This is because the AFD is designed as a forecaster-to-forecaster memorandum, so it might be quite technical at times. Be prepared for dozens of terms that may be unfamiliar. For example, here’s a small excerpt from a past discussion outlining the long-term forecast. 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/…

Mid-level ridging will take place across the local area Monday into Monday evening. Mid-level transitions to a zonal pattern thereafter through Tuesday and then more SW Tuesday night through midweek with shortwave approaching. Mid-level ridging shown in forecast models thereafter through Thursday.

If you are a bit perplexed after reading an AFD, the National Weather Service glossary may help unravel some of the mystery. 

The second part is the aviation section, where the forecaster will discuss pertinent information about the TAFs they issue for their CWA. This section is generally written so that it is easily understood by any certificated pilot or other stakeholder in aviation (e.g., air traffic controller). How much information they put into this section often depends on the specific WFO, the current weather, and the individual meteorologist writing the discussion. In some cases, a forecaster can pack a lot of information into that aviation section, and some will offer few details.

For example, in the aviation section below issued by the Greenville-Spartanburg WFO in Greer, South Carolina, it’s clear that thunderstorms are expected across the area, but it’s not certain if they will impact the Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT) terminal area. So, the forecaster is adding a placeholder for showers in the vicinity (VCSH) in the KCLT TAF to cover the convective threat. In most cases, the AFD may also provide an aviation outlook beyond the typical 24- or 30-hour forecast period. 

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/…

At KCLT…Little change from 06 UTC package as a west wind less than 8 kts under mostly clear skies will continue thru mid-morning. Expect increasing WSW winds with low amplitude gust potential by midday and perhaps periods of VFR ceilings thru the afternoon. Scattered showers and perhaps at tstm…are expected across the NC Piedmont from the afternoon until early evening and will carry VCSH for now to cover that threat. Deep convective activity will diminish by mid-evening when a wind shift to NW is expected.

There are several ways to view the latest AFDs. A few heavyweight apps provide access to the full AFD, including my progressive web app, EZWxBrief. By the way, you may see the AFD referred to as the “TAF Discussion,” or more simply, “Forecast Discussion,” leaving out the word “area.” You can also visit the National Weather Service and enter the city and state or airport identifier of interest in the location field at the top-left of the main webpage and click Go. This will send you to the local WFO’s page, where you will look for a map that says, “Click a location below for detailed forecast,” similar to the one below. 

That will take you to the correct page where you’ll find a link to the forecast discussion below the map, located further down the page on the right side. By visiting this forecast discussion link you’ll also be able to view previous versions of the AFD issued by this WFO.

However, don’t just skip to the Aviation section. Read the synopsis and then focus on the part of the discussion that is pertinent to your proposed departure time. The Aviation section only may be viewed at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC). Selecting the CWA here on the map searches the latest AFD and pulls out only the text associated with the aviation section (if any). 

Here’s my suggestion: Before you spend any time sifting through the TAFs along your route or at your departure and destination airports, take a few minutes to peruse the AFDs to get a good overview of the weather before examining the “fine print” that represents the TAFs. In some instances, your final decision might actually hinge on the forecaster’s comments in the AFD. 

The post Why Is Area Forecast Discussion Important for Preflight Planning? appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

The aerospace manufacturer reported an order backlog of 7,239 commercial aircraft at the end of the year.

Net order intake across Airbus was 820 aircraft units (after cancellations) in 2022, up from 507 units in 2021, a 62 percent overall increase. However, Airbus Helicopters reported a net order intake of 362, down from 414 in 2021, a 13 percent decrease, but with a revenue increase of 8 percent, according to its release. All other segments reported increases or held steady. 

• Read More: Bombardier Reports Growth of Revenue, Deliveries in 2022

Stockholders are likely to receive increased dividends this year, the company said in a statement. “The Board of Directors will propose the payment of a 2022 dividend of €1.80 per share (2021: €1.50 per share) to the 2023 Annual General Meeting,’’ taking place on April 19, 2023. The proposed payment date is April 27, 2023, Airbus said.

Airbus Consolidated’s revenues in 2022 were €58.8 billion, an increase of 13 percent over €52.1 billion in 2021. Airbus delivered 50 more commercial aircraft in 2022 than it did in 2021. Its commercial aircraft include the A220, A320, and A350s. The company reported commercial aircraft revenues were up 15 percent from 2021. 

“2022 was indeed a complex year,” said Guillaume Faury, Airbus CEO, in his opening remarks at a press conference Thursday morning. “We faced an adverse operating environment… Almost one year ago to the day, Russia invaded Ukraine. Furthermore, we had to adapt to a complex operating environment, and in particular, an adverse supply backdrop which eventually led to fewer commercial aircraft deliveries than originally planned. This means it will take us two years to achieve what we had planned to do in one.”

• Read More: Airbus to Miss 2022 Delivery Target

Faury cautiously but optimistically predicted continued growth for Airbus in 2023, adding that, “looking beyond the numbers, what will our priorities be in 2023? This year more than ever, the main priority is to ramp up commercial aircraft productions [sic]. In the persisting adverse environment we’re facing, we will closely work with our suppliers in order to adapt our production to match supply.”

The post Airbus Profits Rose More Than €30 Million Amid ‘Complex’ 2022 appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

A. Most of the official aviation weather forecasts you will get on a standard briefing or via your favorite heavyweight aviation app or website are issued by aviation meteorologists located at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) in Kansas City, Missouri. This includes graphical AIRMETs (G-AIRMETs), SIGMETs (WS) and convective SIGMETs (WST). Terminal aerodrome forecasts or TAFs, however, are not issued by the AWC nor are they issued by Flight Service; they are issued by forecasters physically located at your local NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) throughout the United States and its territories shown below. The meteorologists at the local WFOs are very familiar with any local weather effects and have the best opportunity to produce a quality forecast for aviation. 

Your local WFO typically has the responsibility for issuing the TAFs for six or seven terminal areas on average. At the Greenville-Spartanburg WFO, for example, they issue the terminal forecasts for six airports to include KAND, KGSP, KGMU, KCLT, KHKY, and KAVL.

• READ MORE: Ask FLYING: Why Are Windsocks the Color They Are?

Scheduled TAFs are issued routinely four times a day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. They are typically transmitted 20 to 40 minutes prior to these times. Once the TAFs hit the wire, the forecaster must continue to compare the forecast to the actual observations for the airport to be sure it accurately depicts the ceiling, visibility, wind, and weather occurring at the airport. When there is a discrepancy or the forecaster feels that the TAF isn’t representative of the weather that may occur in the terminal area within the TAF’s valid period, they will issue what is called an unscheduled TAF, better known as an amendment.   

The forecaster doesn’t literally have to watch the observations minute by minute. In fact, they have a program called Aviation Forecast Prep Software (AvnFPS) that monitors the observations at the respective airports. Based on programmed criteria, the software compares the terminal forecast to the latest observations for each TAF site issued by that forecaster and flags the forecast element as green when they match. When the program highlights a forecast element as yellow or red, this means the difference is near or has exceeded the amendment criteria. As can be seen above, the forecast for the most part matches the current observations for those airports in the Greenville-Spartanburg WFO (most elements are green). However, there are three terminal areas (KAVL, KHKY, and KAND) that show yellow for wind (speed or direction) implying that the forecast is not quite in line with the current observations. This allows the forecaster to quickly scan the display to determine if there is an immediate need for an amendment to one or more of the TAFs they issue. 

Amendments are the absolute best way to provide the highest quality forecast. In general, a forecaster will issue an amendment when it meets specific criteria that are imminent or have occurred and those conditions will, in the forecaster’s estimation, persist for 30 minutes or longer, or new guidance/information indicates future conditions are expected to be in a different flight category than originally forecast, especially in the next one to six hours.

• READ MORE: How to Fly Into a Big Airshow With Confidence

Just like instrument students are taught by their instructors not to “chase the needles,” forecasters are similarly encouraged not to chase the observations. For example, an unexpected, but brief rain shower may quickly develop and pass by the terminal area temporarily lowering visibility below the visibility in the TAF. The forecaster may be tempted to issue a quick amendment, but if the condition is expected to be brief, there’s no value to issuing an amendment—especially if it doesn’t alter the flight category (i.e., VFR, MVFR, IFR, LIFR) for the airport.  

The following categorical amendment criteria table below defines the thresholds of importance. 

In addition to the categorical amendment criteria above, below are other criteria where an amendment may be necessary. 

Weather

The TAF should be amended if thunderstorms, freezing precipitation, or ice pellets occur and are not forecasted, or, if forecasted, do not occur.

Wind Direction, Speed, and Gusts

The forecast mean refers to the mean wind direction or speed expected for the specified forecast group time period.

• The TAF should be amended if the forecast mean wind speed differs by ≥ 10 knots, while original or newly expected mean wind speed is ≥ 12 knots.
• The TAF should be amended if the forecast wind gust (or forecast of no gust) differs from observed wind gust by ≥ 10 knots (or above the observed mean wind speed if no gusts are forecast).

Non-convective Low-level Wind Shear (LLWS)

The TAF should be amended if non-convective LLWS is forecasted and does not occur, or if LLWS occurs and is not forecast.

• READ MORE: How Do I Report Braking Action?

The forecaster that issues the TAFs is assigned to the “short term desk” and has other duties to include the area forecast discussion (AFD) and may also include the issuance of severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings for their county warning area (CWA). The forecaster shown below is located at the Greenville-Spartanburg WFO and has recently transmitted the 1800 UTC scheduled TAFs and is now working on the gridded forecasts for the GSP region. The national gridded forecasts can be found here. The AvnFPS software compares the current observations to the gridded forecasts looking for differences as well.

As mentioned earlier, TAFs are issued at prescribed times every six hours. For the Chicago, Atlanta, and New York City terminal areas, however, TAFs are now issued every two or three hours. The NWS began this about a decade ago as part of an enhanced aviation project for the FAA…and it went over so well that they adopted it permanently. For the Chicago O’Hare airport (KORD), for example, you might even see 2-hourly updates at certain times during the day. The 2-hourly issuance times match the times of the FAA planning conference calls. Unlike other WFOs where forecasters that issue TAFs have multiple duties, these WFOs have a dedicated aviation forecaster. 

Here’s the ugly side of this improvement. The two- or three-hourly forecast is treated as an amended forecast, not a newly constructed TAF. In fact, these non-standard scheduled TAFs will carry the AMD tag when viewed online or via a standard briefing. So, there’s no way to tell if the forecast was changed because the amendment criteria was reached or because it was time for a new forecast. Moreover, you won’t see a new forecast if an amendment has been issued within 90 minutes prior to the next 2- or 3-hour non-standard scheduled forecast. For many pilots, this subtle change won’t cause any significant impact to your current flight planning regiment. If you happen to fly into or out of a busy airspace such as Chicago, Atlanta, or New York, just keep in mind that forecasts will be updated much more frequently even on those not-so-challenging weather days. In the end, if you see a terminal forecast tagged with AMD, it may not be because the previous forecast was misaligned with reality. It simply may be a new and improved forecast for you to ponder.

• READ MORE: How Can I Get a Special VFR?

Do you have a question about aviation that’s been bugging you? Ask us anything you’ve ever wanted to know about aviation. Our experts in general aviation, flight training, aircraft, avionics, and more may attempt to answer your question in a future article.

The post Are There Any Amendment Criteria for a TAF? appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

The technology giant released on Sunday its 31st annual Global Business Aviation Outlook at the 2022 National Business Aviation Association’s Business Aviation Convention and Exhibition (NBAA-BACE), with the good news—it forecasts up to 8,500 new business jet deliveries totaling $274 billion for the period from 2023 to 2032. The report registers a 15 percent increase in deliveries and expenditures when compared to last year’s outlook. The total moves the forecast back to 2019 levels with “fleet addition rates doubling from last year’s reported intentions,” according to the company’s statement.

The global pandemic altered use of private jet travel, and apparently that increased utilization will continue to drive corporations and individuals to order new turbine equipment.

“The business aviation industry is greatly benefiting from a wave of first-time users and buyers due in part to changing habits brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Heath Patrick, Honeywell Aerospace president, Americas aftermarket. “The business aviation sector is expected to recover to 2019 delivery and expenditure levels by 2023, which is much sooner than previously anticipated. 

“Demand for new business jets is as high as we’ve seen it since 2015, and we expect high levels of demand and expenditures for new aircraft for several more years.”

Behind the Numbers

FLYING spoke with Javier Jimenez-Serrano, strategic planning manager for Honeywell, ahead of the announcement to gain further insight on several key elements from the 2022 report. These include:

• Deliveries of new jets in 2023 are expected to be 17 percent higher than in 2022—already a stronger year than the two years prior.
• Respondents reported projected deliveries an average of 3 percentage points higher in their five-year purchase plans.
• Fleet additions have risen for the second year in a row, double the 2021 rate and averaging 2 percent of the total fleet.
• Growth year-over-year is projected to go up 2 percent annually

We asked Jimenez-Serrano about the timing of the survey—which gathers the data and responses that Honeywell’s team analizes—and whether that timing allowed it to take into account financial headwinds, including the increase in the base rate and projected greater cost of capital now foreseen in 2023.

The changes may have just registered into real actions in the market, he said, but “the trends are not new.” Those operators targeted for the report watch these trends closely and have already incorporated those challenges into their decision-making matrix, according to Jimenez-Serrano.

Any Surprises in the Data? 

Overall, the strong forecast is “very good news,” he said, and pointed to several elements that were unexpected: “To see 15 percent jumps in the 10-year forecast, reaching 8,500 in the next ten years” was one of them. While it’s not Honewell’s highest forecast—numbers match the report in 2015 where the forecast for new jet deliveries hovered around 8,500 as well, and 2018 where that figure stood at 8,200, according to Jimenez-Serrano—“this goes back to a pre-covid and optimistic pre-covid times.”

Also, the analysis confirms the reports from the OEMs, that most of their production lines are sold out through 2024 and beyond.

Another perhaps unanticipated outcome: Most operators expect to keep up the same level of flying. “We’ve seen a surge in demand for flights, and also used aircraft, so the question has been… is this pent-up demand or new users?” he asked. In his estimation, based on their data, it’s likely new users forming much of the increase in demand. 

One more key data point: Roughly 64 percent expect to fly the same amount of hours in 2023 and only 4 percent expect to fly less, with the remainder expecting to fly more.

Sustainability Reports

FLYING also asked what percentage of operators are currently using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) on a regular basis–and for what percentage of their operations.

Jimenez-Serrano responded that this was a relatively new area of inquiry for the report. “It’s the second year we’ve asked questions related to [sustainability]; the first year, we put it in our report [in 2021] and put in a baseline in order to glean trends. What do we see from the survey? Half of the operators are doing something today to tackle [sustainability targets].” And, that figure is 30 percentage points higher than last year.

What do they say they are doing? They’re taking slower flights—instead of high-speed cruise, they’re flying at a long-range cruise speed, and increasing the number of passengers on each jet.

“When we ask them what the expectations are, in the future, that number [rises to] 60 percent,” those operators who will alter their mission profiles to fly more efficiently.

As for tools they use today, SAF is number one—with the purchase of carbon offsets secondary to that. “They express some frustration in the availability of SAF today,” said Jimenez-Serrano,  “but they express hope.”

However, fuel-efficiency is not a clear driver for purchase decisions—yet. Nor do operators project in their five-year plans the acquisition of any aircraft using alternative powerplants and/or fuels beyond SAF.

“We asked in a hypothetical future—-whether it is electric, hydrogen, [or another] clean form of power,” said Jimenez-Serrano. They responded, “‘not here in the short term.’”

When thinking about a future aircraft, Honeywell asked what parameters would drive the choice. “Most of them mentioned range,” he said. “But then there were mentions of speed and cabin volume, and brand—being able to stay within a brand that they know.”

One other element in purchase decisions holds true, as well. The smaller the aircraft, the more respondents care about direct operating cost. The larger the aircraft, the more that decision depends on speed and range.

Regional Growth

FLYING also asked for details regarding regional differences in what the survey found. “Latin America and APAC have increased the expected share of deliveries,” Jimenez-Serrano said, “And Latin America is curious—there’s a big market in Brazil, [along with Mexico and Argentina].” 

As for the Asia Pacific region, he said, yes, the growth is there, but it’s coming from a very small base. “[The region] is not expected to take over Europe or North America any time soon.”

The post More Strong Growth Forecast for BizAv Sector in 2023 Onward appeared first on FLYING Magazine.

The book is meant to give general aviation pilots a better understanding of weather principles and the tools needed to give weather proper consideration during flight planning. The SkewT diagram, which is a thermodynamic chart used by professional weather trackers, is at the center of the story.

“While the Skew-T is used every day by weather forecasters, in recent years there has been a huge interest in the aviation world for a comprehensive book on this topic,” said Dennstaedt, who also co-authored, with airline pilot Doug Morris, the book, Pilot Weather: From Solo to the Airlines.

Dennstaedt is an instrument flight instructor (CFII) and former National Weather Service research meteorologist. He holds a Ph.D. in infrastructures and environmental systems from the University of North Carolina at Charlotte.

The Skew-T diagram lets the pilot see how conditions are likely to develop based in part on the characteristics of temperature and atmospheric pressure. Avwxworkshops Inc. says the Skew-T helps pilots “drill down” to uncover weather information over a particular spot/location and develop more thorough and effective preflight briefings.

The book is almost 300 pages long and includes more than 200 diagrams, photos, and other images that help make a complex topic easier to understand.

There are two versions of the eBook available. The standard version is on sale for $49.95. There is also a version for $89.95 that includes free updates for reviews of the book that will be released annually through July 26, 2027, the company said.

Founded in 2017, Avwxworkshops Inc. is a privately held company based in Charlotte, North Carolina, that owns and operates the EZWxBrief web app. Among the app’s features is the EZDeparture Advisor, which the company describes as a “route-based personal risk assessment tool” that evaluates weather forecasts on a pilot’s planned route and incorporates the pilot’s personal weather minimums in assessing risk. The tool helps pilots determine the best flight departure time while minimizing exposure to adverse weather.

The post New Aviation Weather eBook Digs Into Forecasts appeared first on FLYING Magazine.