I half-joked that if John was younger and more junior, I could probably guess with reasonable accuracy whether he was a “McChord C-17,” “Whidbey P-3,” or “Whidbey Growler” guy. This is because even though military pilots make up less than half of my airline’s new hires for the first time in our history, they comprise a surprisingly high percentage of the newbies in the Seattle 737 base. I attribute this to the presence of multiple nearby Air Force and Navy Reserve units, which allow pilots who have recently separated from active duty to continue to fly for the military part-time, building toward the 20 years of service that merits a government retirement and healthcare. The largest of these is the Air Force’s 446th Airlift Wing, with three squadrons of C-17s at McChord AFB in Tacoma, Washington. Up at Naval Air Station Whidbey Island, there are three Navy Reserve squadrons: VP-69 (until recently flying the Lockheed P-3 Orion, now converted to the Boeing P-8A Poseidon), VAQ-209 (EA-18G Growler), and VR-61 (Boeing C-40A Clipper).

My limited claim to omniscience perked up John’s attention and he demanded, with a grin, that I take a stab at his background. I knew he was retired military, but his demeanor offered few clues to branch, base, or aircraft. I guessed McChord C-17 and was wrong; in fact, John spent 20 years flying and teaching on P-3s for the Navy and Navy Reserve. But he also spent years in Boeing Flight Test and has been at our airline for six years, which is more than enough to blur the differences not only between military branches and communities but also between military and civilian pilots. Molded by our various backgrounds and experiences, time spent in the airline’s culture tends to erode the edges of all but a few particular individuals.

There was a time, when I was quite young, that my bedroom was adorned with F-16 posters and I had aspirations of military flying. At 12 years old, I was disabused of the notion by an Air National Guard recruiter who noted my substandard eyesight—in those days before LASIK acceptance—barred me from a flight slot in every branch. No matter; I committed to the civilian path and stuck with it.

I had little contact with military aviators at the regional airlines. Horizon had a few Vietnam-era guys on the cusp of retirement, and they were a wild-and-wooly lot even in their dotage. At Compass almost everyone was civilian, but my initial simulator training partner, Rich Metcalf, was a former Air Force F-15C driver who hadn’t touched an airplane in eight years. He had never flown a transport category jet, nor a multicrew airplane, nor one with a glass cockpit or flight management system. Yet for all that, he was magnificent, arguably the sharpest training partner I’ve had in a happy procession of excellent ones.

The major airlines, by their hiring practices, gave credence to the popular notion that military selection and training produced superior pilots, and in Rich I seemed to find terrible confirmation of my inherent inferiority. But then, six years later, I was hired at my current airline, where 95 percent of the captains I flew with were former military aviators. I was startled to find just how similar they were to the pilots I’d known in my decade at the regional airlines. Some were very sharp, others less so; some had natural flying ability, others were wooden; many were kindhearted souls, a few were loudmouthed boors. Every single one made mistakes I’d seen a dozen times before, mistakes I’d made myself. These folks were not superhuman at all; they were working pilots like me. Relieved of my lingering sense of inferiority, I got along famously with almost all these captains and really enjoyed hearing stories of the Ronald Reagan-era military: chasing Russian subs during the Cold War, intercepting TU-95s off the Aleutian Islands, landing on a heaving carrier deck in a typhoon. Often these captains, so used to flying with birds of their own feather, were quite interested to hear my own stories of dark, anxious nights spent alone in the thrumming cocoon of an ancient, overloaded Piper Navajo.

Every once in a while, I’d fly with someone who had never really left the service in their own mind, whose whole identity and ego were wrapped up in their past as a military aviator (most often in the single-seat fighter community). Such captains occasionally earned themselves a private eye roll, but for the most part I indulgently peppered them with questions about their past, to which they predictably rose like a choice trout to a well-presented fly. I received hours of entertaining, most certainly embellished tales out of the deal, plus more than a few free layover beers.

Once I upgraded to captain, I continued to fly with many military pilots, but now they were mostly my age or younger and had been hired within the last few years. Unlike the mostly peacetime Reagan-era captains, these folks spent much of their adult lives at the pointy end of the two-decade “global war on terror.”

The differences are interesting: The egos are smaller, even among fighter jocks, there’s a great deal more diversity, and there’s much more skepticism about the military’s role in the world—and more frank discussion about the highs and lows of service life. I am constantly impressed by the high quality of our new hires, both military and civilian. With rare exceptions, they are extremely sharp individuals and great cockpit companions. They make my job easy. The military pilots, in particular, must learn a great deal in their first months at the airline, especially if they haven’t been flying transport category or multicrew aircraft. Most are very quickly up to speed. I’ve come to realize the airlines’ preference for military aviators isn’t because they’re necessarily superior pilots but because they are predictably trainable in stressful environments. They are used to “drinking through a fire hose.”

A year or two into these pilots’ airline careers, it’s increasingly difficult to tell what branch they came from, even if they continue to fly in the reserves. Another year later, you can’t tell them apart from the civilians. The military pilots have relaxed while the civilians have added some spit and polish. After a few years, most everyone has drifted to a happy medium, which is on the whole a quite good standard—and a big part of the airlines’ enviable safety record the past two decades.

Speaking of which, during our flight to Phoenix, John and I had a eureka moment in which we recalled the details of our previous trip. It was the day of the Christmas bomb cyclone I wrote about in the March issue, with historically terrible weather in Boston, Detroit, and Seattle. John was a fantastic first officer that day, but his cool competence in tough conditions was so utterly normal to my experience that it didn’t make him particularly memorable. This is a great credit not only to John but to all the excellent first officers, military and civilian, with whom I ply the nation’s skies every week. As I near the top third of the seniority list, these folks coming up behind me are becoming the backbone of our airline, remolding our culture in their image. It is a very heartening thing to see.

This column first appeared in the July 2023/Issue 939 print edition of FLYING.

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Boeing’s latest aviation employment forecast—Pilot and Technician Outlook 2020-2039—reflects the chaos the industry is facing as it copes with the chaos surrounding COVID-19, the pandemic that has already put tens of thousands of professionals on the street, exacerbated on September 30 by the expiration of government airline payroll subsidies. The forecast includes data for commercial and business aviation, as well as the civil helicopter industries, assuming air traffic recovers to 2019 levels within the next few years.

The aerospace giant said in the report published last week that despite picking the low-hanging fruit of solutions, such as “government aid, early-retirement incentives, a reduction in labor hours and pay adjustments,” there’s still work to be done. And while a number of uncertainties could affect industry recovery, Boeing believes “the market fundamentals driving air traffic demand remain strong and we remain confident in the long-term strength of the aviation industry.”

The Outlook projects the worldwide need for “763,000 new civil aviation pilots, 739,000 new maintenance technicians and 903,000 new cabin crew members [who] will be needed to fly and maintain the global fleet over the next 20 years.” In North America, Boeing says pilot demand should total approximately 208,000, technicians 192,000 and cabin crew 169,000. According to the report: “While the current industry downturn, driven by COVID-19, has resulted in a temporary oversupply of qualified personnel, the long-term need remains robust. Analysis of new licenses and certificates issued over the past few years had indicated that the number of new personnel entering the industry was lagging demand. The short-term oversupply allows operators the opportunity to build their pipeline in anticipation of growth returning in the next few years.”

Boeing’s forecast says, “It is important to maintain a focus on recovery and ensure we have the qualified pilots, technicians and cabin crew members required for the industry to return to long-term growth trends. We believe it will take around three years for commercial air travel to return to 2019 levels. Business aviation is currently in the midst of a robust recovery. Within that time frame, existing personnel will continue to reach retirement age or leave the industry for various reasons, leaving openings that will need to be filled by furloughed and new aviators. Additionally, as airplanes are brought out of storage, thousands of labor hours will need to be spent to ensure proper maintenance has been performed, parts are in working condition and airplanes are airworthy, requiring the expertise of skilled maintenance technicians. Cabin crews, whose primary purpose has always been to ensure the safety of passengers, are playing a critical role in industry recovery by taking the precautions necessary to strengthen traveler confidence and ensure a high level of sanitation in the cabin. As the aviation industry returns to growth, new qualified personnel will continue to be in demand to support fleet growth.”

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When the Great Recession hit the United States just more than a decade ago, the media was ripe with stories of companies dumping their airplanes faster than McDonalds flips burgers. That flurry of sales—roughly one in five airplanes—followed the PR nightmare created after a number of automakers flew their business jets to Washington to ask for a government bailout.

Now, in 2020, the economic mess is far more serious than in 2008, but reactions from corporate America appear far different according to a news release from industry strategist Brian Foley. “So far, you can’t pry private jets from owners’ hands despite crazy economic gyrations that would normally spook them into selling, and a business jet fleet that’s essentially been sitting idle awaiting lockdown orders to be lifted.” Foley’s company delivers strategic research and guidance to the aerospace industry. In a news release, Foley said, “despite stock markets again plunging due to the worldwide pandemic, the number of business jets on the used market has remained remarkably steady.” Foley reported statistics from private aircraft fleet statistic provider AMSTAT detailing that roughly 9.8 percent of the world fleet was for sale pre-virus. “Today…that number has blipped up to just 10.3 percent—effectively unchanged and still on the low end of used aircraft supply even in normal times.”

What’s different this time? Foley thinks one reason is because the average business jet owner “typically travels on a private jet at most with a couple of people they know, handily beating the alternative of being trapped for hours in an airliner with multitudes of strangers of unknown health pedigrees.” He said that because of this, he assumes the business aviation industry will recover more quickly than the airlines since people travelling on private aircraft will feel safer taking to the skies sooner. Foley added, “It’s [also] likely charter and other non-ownership business models will see an uptick from well-heeled newcomers willing to pay a premium to avoid the airliner petri dish experience.”

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