NOAA Archives - FLYING Magazine https://cms.flyingmag.com/tag/noaa/ The world's most widely read aviation magazine Thu, 10 Oct 2024 19:39:21 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 Hurricane-Hunting P-3 Experiences Severe Turbulence https://www.flyingmag.com/weather/hurricane-hunting-p3-experiences-severe-turbulence/ Wed, 09 Oct 2024 14:13:07 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=219181&preview=1 Remarkable video from aboard a Lockheed Orion illustrates the intensity of Hurricane Milton.

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One of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s two “hurricane hunter” Lockheed WP-3D Orion aircraft flew into the eye of Hurricane Milton as it approached the Florida coast.

Video from on board the four-engine turboprop has been trending on the internet.

Members of the NOAA Commissioned Officer Corps struggled with severe turbulence aboard the Orion as scientists gathered data on wind speed, temperature, record-low pressure, and humidity.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the hurricane was downgraded to Category 4 status from Category 5.

Still, the 155 mph winds represent a significant threat to the west-central coastal area of Florida with storm surges of 10 feet or more expected upon landfall, which is expected Wednesday.


Editor’s Note: This article first appeared on AVweb.

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‘Hurricane Hunters’ Fly Into the Eye of Hurricane Milton https://www.flyingmag.com/modern/hurricane-hunters-fly-into-the-eye-of-hurricane-milton/ Tue, 08 Oct 2024 18:34:39 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=219131&preview=1 Pilots with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Aircraft Operations Center study the storm as it approaches Florida.

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As Hurricane Milton barrels toward the west coast of Florida packing 155 mph winds, pilots are flying into the belly of the beast.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Aircraft Operations Center (AOC) houses a small fleet of “hurricane hunters,” which researchers deploy to predict a hurricane’s structure, intensity, and path. And with Milton forecast to remain a major hurricane when it impacts the Tampa area on Wednesday, the data they gather will be as important as ever.

“This data will then be sent to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and into the weather models to help us pinpoint this track forecast,” said Sofia de Solo, a NOAA flight director, in a preflight brief, “which is extra important this time around, being that the hurricane is expected to hit in a highly populous and highly vulnerable region that just got hit by Hurricane Helene.”

For more than four decades, NOAA’s AOC has managed and maintained ten crewed aircraft at Lakeland Linder International Airport (KLAL) in Florida. Among them are the hurricane hunters: a pair of Lockheed WP-3Ds, or P-3s, affectionately dubbed “Kermit” and “Miss Piggy”, and a Gulfstream IV-SP nicknamed “Gonzo.”

‘Kermit’ and ‘Gonzo’ sit on the ramp at NOAA’s Aircraft Operations Center at Lakeland Linder International Airport in Florida. [Courtesy: Jonathan Shannon/NOAA]

“Kermit” and “Miss Piggy” are designed to fly directly into hurricanes. The four-engine turboprops handle both storm research and reconnaissance when called upon by the NHC, measuring storm structure and intensity, producing real-time forecasts, and scanning for indicators of deadly storm surges. These missions typically take the P-3s into the eye of the storm to measure its central pressure.

“Gonzo,” meanwhile, flies above and around hurricanes with its range of about 4,000 nm and cruise altitude of 45,000 feet. NOAA uses the G-IV to study weather systems in the upper atmosphere surrounding a storm, which can help predict its path. According to the agency, it has flown around nearly every Atlantic-based hurricane that has posed a threat to Americans since 1997.

Outside hurricane season, the aircraft are also used to study weather phenomena such as the El Niño system, atmospheric gases over the North Atlantic, and winter storms on the U.S. Pacific coast.

Lieutenant Commanders Brett Copare and David Keith pilot NOAA’s WP-3D Orion ‘Miss Piggy’ into Hurricane Lee in September 2023. [Courtesy: Commander Andrew Utama/NOAA Corps]

“Miss Piggy” so far has made two flights into Milton, passing through the eye of the storm multiple times in what NOAA calls a “butterfly pattern,” used to identify the center of a hurricane.

“Essentially, every time we pass through the center, we’re going to get a look at the structure of the storm,” said Jonathan Zawislak, a NOAA flight director.

During each pass, the P-3 released dropsondes, which NOAA describes as “weather balloons in reverse.” These expendable devices float on the ocean surface and collect temperature, dew point, wind speed, and pressure data, which can help researchers predict intensity and pathing. The aircraft also produced 3D imagery of Milton using its tail doppler radar.

“Gonzo” so far has flown three missions to collect readings on the air and water in front of Milton, which can “steer” the storm. The G-IV also released dropsondes and gathered tail doppler radar data, beaming it back to the NHC.

“On satellite imagery, the storm presents itself very small. It has a very small pinhole, and due to the intensification, the storm is evacuating air at a very rapid rate,” said de Solo during the preflight briefing. “Up at where we’re flying at 40,000 feet, we’ll feel that.”

NOAA hurricane hunters use tail doppler radar to create 3D imagery of storms, such as this map of Hurricane Sam from September 2021. [Courtesy: NOAA]

According to NOAA, similar missions will be flown before Milton makes landfall. On Tuesday, hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected across the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The hurricane will remain “extremely dangerous,” NOAA and the NHC said Tuesday morning, and could produce an “extremely life-threatening situation” along Florida’s west coast, where a hurricane warning is in place.

“Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by tonight,” the agencies said in an update on X.

NOAA also intends to deploy uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) to assist its hurricane hunters. The agency owns two such systems, the Altius 600 and Blackswift S0, that measure temperature, pressure, wind, and humidity both for storms and the ocean surrounding them. Both aircraft are deployed from the P-3 and piloted remotely, capable of staying aloft for up to four hours.

Aircrews eject the drones from beneath the aircraft at about 220 knots, transporting them as close as possible to the eye of the storm. Data is beamed directly from the UAS back to the P-3, which then sends it to the NHC. The drones are capable of going places crewed aircraft cannot, particularly near the ocean’s surface.

As Hurricane Helene approached the U.S. Southeast, “Miss Piggy” and “Kermit” deployed several Blackswifts to study its composition and path. NOAA told FLYING the agency will fly similar UAS for similar missions as Milton grows closer.

NOAA and the NHC encouraged the public to pay attention to the latest Milton updates on the NHC’s website, noting that forecasts are constantly shifting.

Some NOAA hurricane hunter missions are supported by the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, also known as the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters. Stationed at Keesler Air Force Base (KBIX) in Biloxi, Mississippi, the 53rd deploys a WC-130J Super Hercules to survey storms in the Atlantic, Pacific, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico for the NHC.

A spokesperson for the Hurricane Hunters told FLYING the squadron flew three missions apiece on Sunday and Monday, with two more scheduled for Tuesday. It flew nine reconnaissance missions into Hurricane Helene last month.

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Hurricane Milton Triggers Florida Airport Closures https://www.flyingmag.com/weather/hurricane-milton-triggers-florida-airport-closures/ Tue, 08 Oct 2024 17:42:37 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=219126&preview=1 The storm is expected to deliver 'devastating' winds and a 10-foot or greater storm surge, the National Weather Service said.

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Multiple airports in Florida are closing in preparation for Hurricane Milton, which is expected to make landfall on the west coast of the state by Wednesday evening. 

Tuesday morning, the storm was categorized as a Category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds around 150 mph and hurricane-force winds extending up to 30 miles from its center.

“A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 feet or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula,” the National Weather Service said Tuesday, calling it “an extremely life-threatening situation.”

Tampa International Airport (KTPA) suspended all commercial and cargo operations as of 9 a.m. EST Tuesday. 

“The airport will remain closed to the public until it can assess any damage after the storm,” the airport said in a statement.

The airport’s parking garages were also closed, and officials said it could not be used as a shelter because it is located in the “A” mandatory zone and “will not be staffed to assist others with supplies or assistance, nor will emergency services be able to respond to calls or transport individuals to or from the airport.”

Airport staff have been scrambling to prepare the airfield to minimize the damage from the storm. The airport is managed by the Hillsborough County Aviation Authority, which is also closing Peter O. Knight (KTPF), Tampa Executive (KVDF), and Plant City (KPCM).

St. Pete-Clearwater International (KPIE) in Pinellas County is also located in a mandatory evacuation zone. The airport said it would close after the last flight departed Tuesday and would remain shuttered Wednesday and Thursday because of the storm.

Orlando International Airport (KMCO) said it will stop operations Wednesday at 8 a.m. EST, although, according to a press release from the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority (GOAA), the airport will remain open to emergency/aid and relief flights. The airport is not a shelter, and officials said commercial flights will resume when it is deemed safe to do so pending damage assessment and weather.

At Miami International Airport (KMIA), the largest and busiest airport in the Sunshine State, officials said they were “closely monitoring” the storm and encouraged travelers to check with the airlines to confirm flight status before venturing to the airport.

Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (KSRQ) said it would close at 4 p.m. Tuesday EST, however, many flights had already been canceled.  

The FAA’s full list of  current airport closures may be found here.

Milton is also impacting recreational flying. In Lakeland, Florida, the Flightoberfest festivities scheduled for Saturday on the Sun ’n Fun campus have been postponed, per a statement on the website.

“Our primary concern is the safety of our staff and guests,” event organizers said. The event has been rescheduled for November 16. 

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Strong Geomagnetic Storm Could Impact GPS Navigation, FAA Warns https://www.flyingmag.com/strong-geomagnetic-storm-could-impact-gps-navigation/ Fri, 10 May 2024 20:21:15 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=202663 According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association, satellite navigation may be degraded or inoperable for hours.

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Pilots who rely on GPS, also known as “the magenta line,” for navigation may have a difficult time getting around this weekend as geomagnetic disruptions in the Earth’s atmosphere may create “satellite disruptions” that could impact GPS navigation among other things.

The prediction prompted a warning for pilots from the FAA.

“Geomagnetic storms can disrupt navigational aids and high frequency radio transmissions used in aviation. The FAA advises airlines and pilots to plan ahead to mitigate possible disruptions,” the agency said in a statement.

NOAA issued a Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch and states these watches will be updated through the weekend.

According to NOAA, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are explosions of plasma and magnetic fields from the sun’s corona. These storms can disrupt satellites and infrastructure in near-Earth orbit, “potentially disrupting communications, the electric power grid, navigation, [and] radio and satellite operations.”

Aurora Forecast [Courtesy: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center]

The agency refers to the situation as “an unusual and potentially historic event” and warns satellite navigation (GPS) may be degraded or inoperable for hours, and high frequency radio propagation could be sporadic or blacked out.

These storms are also visible from the Earth as displays of aurora and  may result in displays being seen as far south as Alabama.

READ MORE: How to see the northern lights: Tonight may be the best chance in years


WATCH: NOAA’s GOES-16 satellite captured activity at sunspot AR3664 at around 2 p.m. EDT, Thursday

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Aviation Weather Center Website Upgrade—the Good, Bad, and Ugly https://www.flyingmag.com/aviation-weather-center-website-upgrade-the-good-bad-and-ugly/ Fri, 08 Dec 2023 23:38:01 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=190074 While the site was due for an update, some of the changes haven’t necessarily been a step forward.

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If you frequently use aviationweather.gov for your preflight planning, by now you’ve noticed a new look and feel to the Aviation Weather Center website. That’s because on October 16, the website received a long overdue facelift. There were a lot of changes—some of them for the better, but also some for the worse. Here’s a brief summary of a few of the more significant alterations.

Overview

A majority of the weather data will appear on the graphical forecasts for aviation (GFA) webpage. This is the heart and soul of the new site. Here’s a brief description of the purpose of this page as posted in the GFA help on aviationweather.gov.  

“The GFA webpage is intended to provide the necessary aviation weather information to give users a complete picture of the weather that may impact flight in the United States (including Alaska & Hawaii), Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and portions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The webpage includes observational data, forecasts, and warnings that can be viewed from 18 hours in the past to 18 hours in the future. Hourly model data and forecasts, including information on clouds, flight category, precipitation, icing, turbulence, wind, and graphical output from the National Weather Service’s National Digital Forecast Data (NDFD), are available.”

What’s a Progressive Web App?

Let’s begin with the good news. Like my website, EZWxBrief, the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) decided to build its website  as a progressive web app (PWA). The aviationweather.gov legacy site was very clumsy and nearly impossible to use on a mobile device such as an iPhone. Developing this as a PWA offers a very responsive design, and that means it works reasonably well on those smaller hand-held devices in both portrait and landscape orientations. 

No, you won’t find this “app” in the App Store or Google Play Store. Instead, you should install the PWA on your device to have the best user experience. Not to worry, it literally takes just a few seconds and applies to any device, not just handhelds. 

Here’s the installation process. Simply open a browser that supports a PWA such as Chrome, Safari, or Brave and enter “https://aviationweather.gov” into the browser’s address bar. On your hand-held device, locate the “Share” icon (sometimes called a “Bookmark” or “Send to” icon). This is an icon that’s shaped like a square with an upward pointing arrow in the center. Please note that not all browsers support progressive web apps. A tap on that icon and you have finished step one of three to install the app. 

To install aviationweather.gov as a progressive web app, tap on the ‘Share’ icon. For Chrome, it’s at the end of the address bar as shown here. For Safari, you’ll find the Share icon at the bottom of the browser window for most installations. [Courtesy: Scott Dennstaedt]

Next, you’ll be shown the “Share” menu. Scan down that menu using Chrome or Safari and tap on the “Add to Home Screen” selection.

The next step is to tap on the ‘Add to Home Screen’ selection in the ‘Share’ menu. [Courtesy: Scott Dennstaedt]

During the third and final step, you’ll be able to name your PWA icon. You are free to change the long default name from “AviationWeather.gov” to AWC or whatever you like. When you’ve chosen the name, tap on the “Add” button in the upper-right corner. This will add an Aviation Weather Center icon to your home screen with the name you chose. Even better, when the Aviation Weather Center makes future updates, they will be available the next time you restart the app. It’s actually easier than installing and updating native apps.

The third and final step is to tap on the ‘Add’ button in the upper-right of the screen. You can accept the default name or change the name of the home screen icon. [Courtesy: Scott Dennstaedt]

Just like any native app, tap on that home screen icon and the aviationweather.gov site will open up. You’ll notice that it doesn’t have any browser bar or other browser controls, which frees up valuable screen real estate on smaller devices. Essentially, it will have the same look and feel as a native app without the overhead of Apple or Google. 

You can do the same installation on your desktop or laptop computer, but the process is a bit different. Once again, open up your browser and type “https://aviationweather.gov” into the address bar, and you will see an Install button appear at the end of the address bar for any website (and browser) that supports a PWA.

On a desktop or laptop computer, you’ll also be able to install aviationweather.gov as a progressive web app. After visiting aviationweather.gov using Chrome or Brave, click on the ‘Install’ button. [Courtesy: Scott Dennstaedt]

Clicking on the “Install” button will provide the prompt below to install the app.  Once done, you’ll see an Aviation Weather Center icon on your desktop. By the way, you can also always uninstall the app at any time for any of your devices.

The last step is to acknowledge the install, and you’ll see an icon added to your desktop. [Courtesy: Scott Dennstaedt]

One of the issues that is apparent with the site on some hand-held devices is that the app will crash or reset when using a rapid, pinch-and-zoom gesture on the interactive GFA map. This is evidently an issue with Leaflet (the software it uses to render the maps), and the workaround is to avoid any rapid, pinch-and-zoom gestures. Just slow your roll and you’ll be fine.  

Cross Section Tool

To replace the Java Flight Path Tool that required you to download Java onto your computer (Java isn’t permitted on iOS devices), the AWC added a cross-section tool that now runs on any platform. You will see an icon on the right to start this tool. It’s the icon just under the settings icon (cog wheel).

Look for the icon with the curved arrow and two dots to start the cross-section tool. [Courtesy: Scott Dennstaedt]

You simply define a route, such as KMCI.KMEM.KAVL (note the periods in between the identifiers), and you can plot this path on the GFA map as a great circle route or view it as a cross section. Currently, the only variables you can plot on the vertical cross section are temperature, wind speed, turbulence, and icing.

The new cross-section tool allows you to plot four different variables (temperature, wind speed, turbulence and icing) along a proposed route of flight. [Courtesy: Scott Dennstaedt]

Reduction in Static Imagery

The overall new design of the website is radically different from its legacy counterpart. Perhaps the most significant long-term effect is that the AWC decided to terminate the generation of dozens of static images that were available on the legacy site. Many flight planning websites, and even some of the heavyweight EFB apps referenced, scraped many of these images off of the AWC site. Consequently, you may have noticed back in the middle of October that these apps had to scramble to delete those from their own static imagery collections. The imagery collections that were depreciated included: 

  • Lowest freezing level forecast from the Rapid Refresh (RAP) model
  • TCF, eTCF, ECFP convective forecasts
  • RAP/NAM Wind/Temperature graphics
  • PIREP plots
  • Satellite regional plots

Although you can still find access to prog charts, G-AIRMETs, as well as icing and turbulence static imagery within the decision support imagery page (https://aviationweather.gov/graphics), the AWC has a goal to eventually eliminate all static imagery.

Missed Opportunities

Your opinion  may differ, but I find the user interface for the decision support imagery to be very antiquated and clumsy. Even on large screens, you have to constantly scroll up and down, and it requires an immense amount of button clicks or taps to get what you want. It’s very exhausting and tedious to use. In fairness, that page suggests it was “designed for Center Weather Service Unit meteorologists who build information packages on desktop computers.” Instead, AWC suggests that pilots utilize the interactive map page (https://aviationweather.gov/gfa).

The issue here is that the DSS page gives you a vertical resolution of 2,000 feet for icing and turbulence forecasts. If you use its interactive map, you only get a 3,000-foot or even 6,000-foot vertical resolution despite the fact that the native vertical resolution of the icing and turbulence products is 1,000 feet. It is understandable that browsers have hard limitations, and this was likely a tradeoff to providing something that has a reasonable performance. 

While the Aviation Weather Center removed the regional satellite imagery from the site, it has been incorporated as a separate layer into the graphical forecasts for aviation (GFA) tool. Currently there isn’t a replacement for the color infrared satellite imagery. That is something it will be adding in the future.

Another deficiency is that the site doesn’t acknowledge when the layer you are viewing is void of data. For example, if you pull up the center weather advisories (CWAs) on the GFA tool, you may get a blank map. Is the map blank because there are no CWAs active, which happens more often than not? Or perhaps it’s because your browser or internet connection is being finicky? The lack of any data or advisories is just as critical as the presence of them. AWC doesn’t provide any acknowledgement or banner to alert you when this occurs.  

If you are looking to travel outside of the U.S., some of the weather guidance on the GFA tool, such as icing and turbulence, stops at the border. While this was also true with the legacy GFA tool, it still represents a shortcoming given that much of this guidance is available over a good portion of Canada and northern Mexico. The National Weather Service (NWS) has a directive that it can’t show forecasts outside of the U.S., especially over Canada and Mexico. Pilots are supposed to go to the respective website/services for those countries to receive that forecast information.

When using the GFA tool, you will notice that forecasts for icing ends at the U.S. border. [Courtesy: NOAA]

This is inconsistent since some decision support graphics (i.e., static imagery) clearly show forecasts for icing and turbulence in Canada and Mexico. Moreover, if you plot a route from International Falls, Minnesota, to Caribou, Maine (through southern Ontario and Quebec, Canada), the cross-section view shows this guidance.

The vertical cross section provides guidance for routes that include points outside of the U.S. [Courtesy: NOAA]

Finding HEMS

If you are looking for the helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) tool, it has been integrated into the interactive GFA and rebranded as the GFA-LA tool (with “LA” for “low altitude”). When viewing the GFA, click on the helicopter button in the upper-right part of the map to switch the GFA from general aviation mode into low-altitude mode, which offers expanded capability from the HEMS tool.

The Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) tool has been rebranded as the Graphical Forecast for Aviation – Low Altitude (GFA-LA) and can be found by clicking on the helicopter icon in the upper right from within the GFA tool. [Courtesy: Scott Dennstaedt]

Final Thoughts

There’s no doubt that there are winners and losers with this update. I’ve read hundreds of comments on social media posts and other aviation forums that despise the new site and those that simply love it. The biggest advantage is that the site is very responsive on hand-held devices with the occasional glitch that I’m sure will be resolved in time. The dismantling of nearly half of the static imagery is truly a loss and will likely be felt for months, if not years, to come. As a matter of fact, I am in the process of finding replacements of these image collections for my own website, EZWxBrief. 

Lastly, if you are still hanging onto a glimmer of hope that AWC will bring back the legacy site, don’t hold your breath. While there are still some growing pains with this new version, the Aviation Weather Center is fully committed to this new release—so just get used to it. 

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NOAA Changing Weather Site https://www.flyingmag.com/noaa-changing-weather-site/ Fri, 13 Oct 2023 16:49:36 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=185049 On Monday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will be launching a completely overhauled online weather resource.

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Attention all aviation weather geeks: On Monday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will be launching a completely overhauled online weather resource. For decades, aviationweather.gov has been helping pilots supplement their weather information, providing access to TAFs and METARs and providing graphical forecasts.

The new site has a much cleaner appearance than the legacy site from the Aviation Weather Center arm of NOAA. It features more interactive maps, static images to embed in briefing material, and a dark mode.

User Features

The user can select raw data or, with a push of a button, have it presented decoded.

You can select the most recent weather or take a look as far back as 48 hours, and there is a “remember” feature.

Under the weather tab at the top of the page is a drop-down menu for observations and forecasts for ceiling, visibility, precipitation, thunderstorms, temperature, winds, turbulence, and icing. Each item is indicated with text and an icon.

Clicking on the icons calls up an interactive map with a slider that displays a graphic depiction of the forecast conditions.

According to the agency, the upgrade is designed to be adaptable to permit use on mobile devices.

All displays and tools available on the current aviationweather.gov are available on the updated website. In addition, the new website merges the legacy Helicopter Emergency Medical Services (HEMS) tool into the same framework as the Graphical Forecasts for Aviation while keeping its focus on low-altitude flight.

The Aviation Weather site is a free service and does not require a discreet login or user account. This makes it more accessible as a weather tool. However, unlike products that require a discreet login, the user’s interaction with the site is more difficult to verify.

If you can’t wait until Monday, test out the new features here: https://beta.aviationweather.gov.

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Why Do Runways Get Renumbered? https://www.flyingmag.com/why-do-runways-get-renumbered/ Wed, 28 Jun 2023 14:08:27 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=174641 Every five years, such decisions are based on how much the Earth’s magnetic field changes.

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Question: For decades the runway of the airport I fly out of has had Runway 16-34. In a few weeks the runway will be closed for a month so that the runway can be resurfaced and renumbered 17-35. I am wondering how the FAA knows when it is time to shift?

Answer: Per the Aeronautical Information Manual, runway numbers are determined from the approach direction. The runway number is the whole number nearest one‐tenth the magnetic azimuth of the centerline of the runway, measured clockwise from the magnetic north. Magnetic azimuth is determined through the World Magnetic Model (WMM), a global means of measuring the Earth’s large-scale magnetic field.

The magnetic field is created by the movement of iron and nickel beneath the Earth’s surface around its core. The movement creates shifts in the magnetic field, known as declination. The closer the site is to the poles, the quicker declination occurs. Measurements for the WMM come from many sources, including satellites and a global network of 120 magnetic observatories.

According to the National Centers for Environmental Information, every five years agencies, such as the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration and FAA, review the WMM for changes. When the WMM indicates delineation of more than 7 degrees has occurred, the runway numbers are updated.

Do you have a question about aviation that’s been bugging you? Ask us anything you’ve ever wanted to know about aviation. Our experts in general aviation, flight training, aircraft, avionics, and more may attempt to answer your question in a future article.

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Is the Shift in Tornado Alley Related to Climate Change? https://www.flyingmag.com/is-the-shift-in-tornado-alley-related-to-climate-change/ Wed, 03 May 2023 16:49:21 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=171179 From year to year there may be a stark contrast in where severe weather strikes, especially thunderstorms that produce tornadoes.

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Question: It seems there have been more significant severe weather events that include tornadoes happening in the Deep South, especially in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama rather than in the traditional location of Tornado Alley. Is this driven by climate change?  

Answer: The short answer is yes. Tornado Alley has had a bad reputation over the last couple of decades, however. Although there has never been an official designation of where Tornado Alley is located, it is the area that is roughly approximated by the central and southern Plains from Nebraska to north-central Texas. 

There has been some debate that Tornado Alley has been shifting to the east over the last couple of decades. But it is more likely that Tornado Alley isn’t shifting but rather expanding to the east. 

Annual average of tornado watches per year over the last two decades shows a hotspot in the lower Mississippi Valley to include Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western panhandle of Florida. [Courtesy of NOAA.]

From year to year, there may be a stark contrast in where severe weather strikes, especially thunderstorms that produce tornadoes. That is, there may be two or three years in a row where significant tornado events are focused more in Tornado Alley and other years where they are focused in the Ozarks, mid-South, and Tennessee Valley. This year-to-year variation happens for a variety of reasons, but climate change will continue to expand where supercell-type thunderstorms develop and produce significant and destructive tornadoes.  

Scientists are studying how anthropogenic climate change (ACC) is affecting the location of severe weather. This climate change originating from human activity is causing a change in the location of where many supercell thunderstorms originate. 

Supercells are storms that are distinguished from ordinary pulse-type convection by its deep, long-lived mesocyclone, which has a rotating midlevel vortex with a diameter between 1 and 5 miles and a vertical depth of at least 6,000 to 10,000 feet. While many supercells are individually separate and distinct, others may be embedded within larger complexes of thunderstorms or what are called mesoscale convective systems. Relatively rare, some supercell thunderstorms can persist for four or more hours.

The mean number of tornado days per year of tornadoes rated as EF2 or greater within 25 miles of a point from 1986 to 2015. This has a maximum of 3.5 to 4.0 well east of Tornado Alley. [Courtesy: NOAA and the Storm Prediction Center]

The greatest concern is that as the trend in tornado environments from supercell-type convection expands to the east this will undoubtedly increase the exposure and vulnerability of people in these areas. In other words, with socioeconomic vulnerabilities projected to rise in the Ozarks, mid-South, and Tennessee Valley, the likelihood of more impactful tornado events in these regions is certain for the remaining decades of the twenty-first century.

The best approach is to remain weather aware and to pay close attention to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks. These include a one-, two-, and three-day categorical outlook of severe weather along with a forecast discussion.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 2 categorical convective outlook showing an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms in northeastern Texas. [Courtesy: Storm Prediction Center]

In addition, the SPC issues a probabilistic forecast for severe weather specifically for the potential of tornadoes, strong straight-line winds, and large hail. While some of these probabilities can look quite low, don’t be fooled. 

According to the SPC, “If you have a 15 percent probability for tornadoes, this means you have a 15 percent chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of your location. This may seem like a low number, but a tornado is very uncommon at any one location. Normally, your chances of getting hit by a tornado or other severe weather are small, purely based on statistical average. Let’s say you have a 1 percent statistical (climatology) history of tornadoes within 25 miles on this day, which still is large. Having a 15 percent probability means 15 times the normal odds of a tornado nearby, meaning it should be taken seriously.”

The SPC probabilistic tornado outlook shows a 5 percent risk of thunderstorms that may produce tornadoes. [Courtesy: Storm Prediction Center]

Once severe convection is likely, the SPC will issue a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch for heightened public awareness. Once tornadoes are seen by trained storm spotters or are indicated by the Nexrad Doppler weather radar, tornado warnings are issued for you to seek immediate cover. 

Do you have a question about aviation that’s been bugging you? Ask us anything you’ve ever wanted to know about aviation. Our experts in general aviation, flight training, aircraft, avionics, and more may attempt to answer your question in a future article.

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Hurricane Nicole Prompts NASA To Delay Artemis Launch https://www.flyingmag.com/hurricane-nicole-prompts-nasa-to-delay-artemis-launch/ Thu, 10 Nov 2022 19:24:08 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=161219 NASA is now aiming to launch Artemis November 16.

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You’ve got to hand it to the folks at NASA. They know how to take challenges in stride.

The Artemis program has faced numerous delays after NASA waived off launch attempts on August 29 and September 3 because of mechanical issues, and again in late September, owing to weather concerns stemming from Hurricane Ian.

Last Friday, NASA began to prepare for the next window of opportunity: a liftoff attempt at 12:07 a.m. EST on Monday, November 14. The Artemis I Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft were rolled out to Launch Pad 39B. The 4-mile move from the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) was slow and methodical, taking several hours to complete.

In the interim, however, a tropical storm, which would later become Hurricane Nicole, formed and struck Florida, prompting NASA to push the launch to one of its backup dates: November 16.

Preparing for a Storm

Last week, as Hurricane Nicole began to form as a hybrid low-pressure system near Puerto Rico, NASA was already keeping its eye on the storm and its potential impact. During a media event, Jim Free, associate administrator Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters, expressed confidence in the technical preparations for the spacecraft but noted that a developing low-pressure weather system had captured the launch team’s attention.

During the media event, Free said the team would continue with its planned November 4 rollout to the launch pad.

 “We’re confident in the decision process that went into that,” Free said at the time. “We talked about a lot of the same things, many things that we talked about with the hurricane (Ian).” 

At that time, the storm was forecasted to bring sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts between 35-40 knots to the Cape Canaveral area. During the week, however, the subtropical system gradually strengthened. By the time the hurricane made landfall Thursday morning near Vero Beach, it had intensified to a Category 1 hurricane packing 70 mph winds. 

Earlier in the week, on Tuesday, the National Weather Service issued a hurricane warning for all of Brevard County where Cape Canaveral is located, along with warnings for surrounding counties. Located near the forecast cone and close to the projected landfall area, Kennedy Space Center and the surrounding Space Coast communities were forced into storm preparation mode. 

NASA switched into its HURCON mode, which follows a set of weather preparation guidelines based on the timing of an approaching storm. This process includes having a Rideout Team (ROT) deployed to secure and monitor the launch pad and other vital areas.

The Orion spacecraft sits atop the SLS rocket after being rolled out on November 4th. [Courtesy: NASA/Joel Kowsky]

Tuesday, as the storm approached, NASA officials confirmed the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft assembly would be able to handle Nicole’s winds without damage.

“The SLS rocket is designed to withstand 85 mph (74.4 knots) winds at the 60-foot level with structural margin,” NASA said in a statement. “Current forecasts predict the greatest risks at the pad are high winds that are not expected to exceed the SLS design. The rocket is designed to withstand heavy rains at the launch pad, and the spacecraft hatches have been secured to prevent water intrusion.”

Wind gusts at the launch pad, however, exceeded the design specifications, according to a local meteorologist.

“… LC-39B, where @NASAArtemis is located has peaked out their winds at 100 mph … That’s beyond design limits of the rocket to ride out a storm,” Eric Burris, a meteorologist at TV station WESH 2 said in a tweet Thursday morning.

As of Thursday afternoon, NASA had not yet commented on wind gusts at the launch pad, or provided updates on the condition of the rocket. 

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Seaplane Wreckage Found in Puget Sound https://www.flyingmag.com/seaplane-wreckage-located-in-puget-sound/ https://www.flyingmag.com/seaplane-wreckage-located-in-puget-sound/#comments Tue, 13 Sep 2022 20:00:23 +0000 https://www.flyingmag.com/?p=155391 Investigation continues into last week’s deadly Turbine Otter crash near Seattle.

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The National Transportation Safety Board has located the wreckage of the DHC-3 Turbine Otter that crashed in Mutiny Bay near Seattle earlier this month. The aircraft, registered to Northwest Seaplanes, went down on the afternoon of September 4 during a routing flight from Friday Harbor to Renton.

There were nine adults and one child on board. The body of one of the adults, 29-year-old Gabby Hanna from Seattle, was found in the water moments after the crash. The rest of the victims are still missing.

The wreckage was located through the coordinated efforts of the NTSB, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the University of Washington’s Applied Physics Laboratory using side scan sonar, multibeam sonar, and 3D instruments.

Authorities used the aircraft’s last known position, along with information on local tides and currents to determine the search area, which was reported to be a 1.75 by 0.75-mile square.

The university’s vessel scanned the area identified from the NOAA multibeam data, and according to the NTSB, “Using all available data, investigators concluded the targets they identified were from the aircraft.”

The images from the floor of the Puget Sound show a long object that may be the fuselage, some 190 feet below the surface. The images do not have much detail, and as of yet, a detailed inspection has not been made of the site.

The NTSB stated, “Due to the depth of the water (100-200 feet) and the current (3-5 knots), the most suitable tool for visual confirmation is a remotely operated vehicle (ROV). NTSB is coordinating with our federal partners and private companies to use an ROV in the search.”

The NTSB does not have a date on when the ROV will be deployed.

How It Happened 

The Turbine Otter went down en route from Friday Harbor to Renton. The altitude normally flown by seaplanes along this route is approximately 600 feet above the surface. The aircraft was approximately half-way through the flight.

According to a tweet from Flightradar24, the last ADS-B signal from the Otter was at 22:08 UTC and the aircraft was showing a descent of 7,744 fpm.

There are no reports of the pilot issuing a distress call.

Witnesses to the accident told local television stations that the aircraft hit the water in a vertical attitude. The impact was loud and it sent up a large plume of water.

The Coast Guard searched the area for more than 20 hours, from both the air and water hoping for survivors, but none were found.

During the search, small pieces of plastic and fuel-soaked foam along with a 6-foot-by-18-inch piece of the fuselage with the aircraft tail number N725TH were recovered, along with a few personal items that were believed to have belonged to the occupants of the aircraft.

The NTSB preliminary report on the accident has not yet been compiled. In many cases, the final report is not available for a year to 18 months

Northwest Seaplanes posted on its Facebook page: “The team at Northwest Seaplanes is heartbroken, we don’t know any details yet regarding the cause of the accident. We are working with the FAA, NTSB, and [Coast Guard]. We have been in communication with the families. We are praying for the families involved, including our pilot and his family.”

The company had no comment on the news the wreckage had been located, however, on its Facebook page the company thanked the community for their outpouring of support, and noted a GoFundMe page has been created for the family of pilot Jason Winters.

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